PAGASA: Auring Weakens Due To Amihan, May Further Weaken After Sunday Landfall in Caraga

Severe Weather Bulletin #9: Tropical Storm "#AuringPH"

Issued at 05:00 am, 20 February 2021
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11 AM today)

TROPICAL STORM "#AuringPH" SLIGHTLY WEAKENS OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

Heavy Rainfall:
• Until this noon: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental, and Southern Leyte.
• This noon through tomorrow (21 February) morning: Heavy to intense rains over Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, and the rest of Caraga. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and the rest of Northern Mindanao.
• Tomorrow morning through Monday (22 February) morning: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Surigao del Norte, and Dinagat Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, the southern portion of Quezon, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and the rest of Visayas and Caraga.

Strong Winds:
• In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Tropical Storm "#AuringPH" will bring strong to gale-force winds over the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is in effect, as well as over the rest of Visayas, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, and Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, and the northern portion of Palawan (including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan Islands). Strong breeze to near-gale conditions are also likely over the rest of Luzon.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

• In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (2.8 to 7.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS. Rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 5.0 m) will prevail over the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the remaining seaboards of Visayas. Rough seas (2.5 to 4.0 m) will prevail over the northern and western seaboards of Mindanao and the remaining seaboards of Luzon. Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Track and intensity outlook:

• On the forecast track, Tropical Storm "#AuringPH" is forecast remain almost stationary in the next 6 to 12 hours before gradually accelerating towards the northwest. Its center is forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of Caraga Region on Sunday morning or afternoon, then cross Visayas and MIMAROPA throughout the remainder of Sunday through Monday.
• "#AuringPH" is more likely to remain as a tropical storm until it makes landfall over Caraga. However, there is an increasing likelihood that the storm will weaken into a tropical depression before making landfall. Nevertheless, this storm will likely weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and persistent vertical wind shear during this passage over the archipelago and may reach tropical depression category on Monday.

Location of Eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm "#AuringPH" was estimated based on all available data at 475 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (06.3 °N, 130.1 °E )
Movement: Moving Almost Stationary
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h

Forecast Position:
• 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 265 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur(7.9°N, 128.7°E)
• 48 Hour(Monday morning):100 km East Southeast of Roxas City, Capiz( 11.2°N, 123.6°E)
• 72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 85 km Northwest of Coron, Palawan( 12.5°N, 119.6°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)

Visayas:
Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Negros Oriental, Bohol, and Siquijor

Mindanao:
Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental,
Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao City, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Bukidnon, and Lanao del Sur

Impacts of the wind
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light
materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.