SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #4
FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#AuringPH" (DUJUAN)TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING
ISSUED AT 11:00 PM, 18 February 2021
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow)
TROPICAL STORM "AURING" CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.
Hazards affecting land areas:
Heavy Rainfall:
• Tonight through tomorrow (19 February), the trough of Tropical Storm “AURING” may bring scattered thunderstorms over Caraga and Davao Region.
• On Saturday (20 February), moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Caraga Region, Davao Oriental, and Davao de Oro. Moderate to heavy rains over Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Bukidnon, and Davao del Norte. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Central Visayas, the rest of Northern Mindanao, Northern Samar, Lanao del Sur, Cotabato, and Davao City.
• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy rains or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Strong Winds:
• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon is bringing strong breeze to near-gale conditions over Northern Luzon and the eastern sections of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, especially in coastal and mountainous areas.
• In anticipation of the arrival of strong breeze to near-gale conditions directly caused by “AURING”, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is now in effect for several areas in Davao Region. More localities in Caraga and Davao Region may be placed under TCWS #1 in the next bulletin. Based on current meteorological data, the highest level of wind signal that will be issued throughout the passage of “AURING” is TCWS #2 (for potentially damaging gale-force to storm-force winds).
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (3.0 to 6.5 m) will be experienced over the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. Rough to very rough seas are also expected over the seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon (3.0 to 5.5 m), Southern Luzon (4.0 to 5.5 m), and Visayas (3.5 to 6.0 m). Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the rest of the seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Tropical Storm “AURING” will move generally westward over the next 24 hours before turning northwestward and while gradually accelerating tomorrow evening or Saturday morning. “AURING” is forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of Caraga Region on Sunday (21 February). On the forecast track, the storm will likely follow a generally northwestward path as it traverses Caraga Region, Visayas, and MIMAROPA on Sunday and Monday.
• “AURING” is forecast to further intensity into a Severe Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. Further intensification into a typhoon within the forecast period remains less likely as of this time.
Location of eye/center: At 10:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Storm "AURING" was estimated based on all available data at 605 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (7.3°N, 131.7°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.
Movement: Moving Westward slowly
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow evening): 430 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (7.0°N, 130.0°E)
• 48 Hour (Saturday evening): 215 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (8.3°N, 128.3°E)
• 72 Hour (Sunday evening): 110 km East Southeast of Roxas City, Capiz (11.3°N, 123.7°E)
• 96 Hour (Monday evening): 70 km North Northwest of Coron, Palawan (12.6°N, 120.0°E)
• 120 Hour (Tuesday evening): 275 km West Southwest of Subic Bay (14.3°N, 117.8°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Davao Oriental and the eastern portion of Davao de Oro (Pantukan, Maragusan, Compostela, New Bataan)
Impacts of the Wind:
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
No comments:
Post a Comment