PAGASA: Auring Almost Stationary, Still Slowed Down By Amihan, May Become A Tropical Depression Before Landfall

 

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SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #15

FOR: TROPICAL STORM "#AuringPH" (DUJUAN)

TROPICAL CYCLONE: WARNING

ISSUED AT 11:00 AM, 21 February 2021

(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today)

TROPICAL STORM "AURING" MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHIILE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

Hazards affecting land areas:

Heavy Rainfall:

• Today (21 February): Moderate to heavy rains over Caraga, Eastern Visayas, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, and Camiguin. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Zamboanga Peninsula, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Quezon, and the rest of Visayas and Northern Mindanao.

• Tomorrow (22 February): Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Visayas, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan.

• Under these conditions, scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.

Strong Winds:

• In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Tropical Storm “AURING” will bring gale-force winds in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 and strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where TCWS #1 is in effect, as well as over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Aurora, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol Region.

Hazards affecting coastal waters:

• In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS (2.6 to 5.0 m) and the eastern seaboard of Luzon not under TCWS (2.6 to 4.5 m). Rough seas (2.5 to 4.0 m) will prevail over the southern seaboard of Luzon (including the eastern seaboard of Palawan), the remaining seaboards of Visayas, and the northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao that are not under any TCWS. Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.

• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

Track and intensity outlook:

• Tropical Storm “AURING” is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward in the next 48 hours. On the forecast track and its probability cone, this storm may initially make landfall over the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island)-Leyte area between tonight or tomorrow early morning.

• There is an increasing likelihood that “AURING” will weaken into a tropical depression before it makes landfall due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. However, the possibility that the storm will maintain its strength until landfall is not yet ruled out. After landfall, “AURING” is forecast to weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a remnant low within 48 hours, possibly sooner.

Location of eye/center At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm "AURING" was estimated based on all available data at 335 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (8.4°N, 129.4°E).

Strength Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

Movement Almost Stationary

Forecast Positions

• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): In the vicinity of Jaro, Leyte (11.1°N, 124.8°E)

• 48 Hour (Tuesday morning):80 km North of Coron, Palawan (12.7°N, 120.1°E)

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL

TCWS #2

(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)

-Visayas

The central and southern portions of Eastern Samar (Sulat, Taft, San Julian, Borongan City, Maydolong, Balangkayan, Balangiga, Lawaan, Llorente, Hernani, General Macarthur, Quinapondan, Giporlos, Salcedo, Mercedes, Guiuan)

-Mindanao

Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands

Impacts of wind

• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;

• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;

• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures

• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.

• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.

• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.

• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.

• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards

• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.

• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.

• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.

• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.

TCWS #1

(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)

-Luzon

Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, Catanduanes, and the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagnay, Buhi, Iriga City, Nabua, Bato, Balatan)

-Visayas

Northern Samar, the rest of Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental (Kabankalan City, Himamaylan City, Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, Hinigaran, La Castellana, Pontevedra, San Enrique, La Carlota City, Pulupandan, Valladolid, Bago City, Murcia, Bacolod City, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso, Calatrava, San Carlos City, Salvador Benedicto), the eastern portion of Iloilo (San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Lemery, Ajuy, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles), and the eastern portion of Capiz (Roxas City, Panitan, Ma-Ayon, Cuartero, Dumarao, Panay, Pontevedra, President Roxas, Pilar)

-Mindanao

Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao City, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon

Impacts of wind

• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,

• Light damage to medium to high risk structures

• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged

• Twigs of small trees may be broken.

• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today.