Health Secretary Francisco Duque III told President Rodrigo Duterte during last night's cabinet meeting: We're giving special attention to Central Visayas, especially Cebu City, Mandaue City and Lapulapu City.
Lapulapu City is now considered a moderate risk because their hospitals' critical care utilization rate is 69%
LGUs should exert more effort to control community transmission of Covid-19
The overall critical utilization rate in Central Visayas is still considered low risk at 49%
PAGASA: The latest track shows that Tropical Depression Auring, because of its north northwestward movement at 20 kilometers per hour, would not directly hit Cebu. Auring may make landfall over Eastern Samar this afternoon or tonight as a tropical depression or, if it continues to weaken, as a remnant low pressure area.
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "AURING" CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES DINAGAT ISLANDS-HOMONHON ISLAND AREA.
Hazards affecting land areas:
Heavy Rainfall:
• Today: Moderate to heavy rains over Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Marinduque, Romblon, and Quezon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora and the rest of Visayas, MIMAROPA, and CALABARZON.
• Tomorrow: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Metro Manila, Camarines Norte, Bulacan, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Batanes.
• Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are still likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that received significant rainfall over the past couple of days. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Strong Winds:
• In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon and “AURING” will bring strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is in effect, as well as over Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern portions of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol Region.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough seas will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS #1, the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon not under any TCWS (2.5 to 3.5 m), the southern seaboard of Luzon and the remaining seaboards of Visayas (2.5 to 3.0 m). Sea travel is risky especially for those using small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of Luzon, and the northern and western seaboards of Mindanao not under any TCWS. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Track and intensity outlook:
• “AURING” is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track and its probability cone, the tropical depression may initially make landfall over the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island)-Leyte area in the next 6 to 12 hours.
• There is an increasing likelihood that “AURING” will further weaken before it makes landfall due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Post-landfall, “AURING” is forecast to weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a remnant low within 24 hours, possibly sooner.
Location of eye/center:
At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "AURING" was estimated based on all available data at 195 km East of Maasin City, Southern Leyte (10.3°N, 126.6°E).
Strength:
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.
Movement:
Moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h.
Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 55 km West Southwest of Romblon, Romblon (12.4°N, 121.8°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS#1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
LUZON
Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, Catanduanes, and the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagnay, Buhi, Iriga City, Nabua, Bato, Balatan)
VISAYAS
Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Siquijor, the northern and eastern portions of Negros Oriental (Dumaguete City, Sibulan, San Jose, Amlan, Pamplona, Tanjay City, Bais City, Manjuyod, Bindoy, Ayungon, Tayasan, Jimalalud, La Libertad, Guihulngan City, Canlaon City, Vallehermoso), the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental (Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, La Castellana, La Carlota City, Bago City, Pontevedra, Hinigaran, San Enrique, Valladolid, Pulupandan, Murcia, San Carlos City, Bacolod City, Salvador Benedicto, Calatrava, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso), the eastern portion of Iloilo (Dumangas, Barotac Nuevo, Anilao, San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Banate, Passi City, San Enrique, Dingle, Lemery, Ajuy, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles), and the eastern portion of Capiz (Cuartero, Dumarao, Ma-Ayon, Pontevedra, Panay, President Roxas, Panitan, Dao, Pilar)
MINDANAO
Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, the northern portion of Surigao del Sur (Lianga, Barobo, San Agustin, Marihatag, Cagwait, Bayabas, Tago, San Miguel, Tandag City, Cortes, Lanuza, Carmen, Madrid, Cantilan, Carrascal), Agusan del Norte, the northern portion of Agusan del Sur (Bayugan City, Prosperidad, Sibagat), the eastern portion of Misamis Oriental (Gingoog City, Magsaysay, Medina, Talisayan, Claveria, Balingasag, Lagonglong, Balingoan, Kinoguitan, Sugbongcogon, Binuangan, Salay), and Camiguin
IMPACTS OF THE WIND:
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today.
Ngayong 4 PM, Pebrero 21, 2021, ang Department of Health ay nakapagtala ng 1,888 na karagdagang kaso ng COVID-19. Samantala ay mayroon namang naitalang 9,737 na gumaling at 20 na pumanaw.
Sa kabuuang bilang ng mga naitalang kaso sa bansa, 4.7% (26,238) ang aktibong kaso, 93.2% (522,843) na ang gumaling, at 2.15% (12,088) ang namatay.
More details from DOH Covid-19 Tracker: www.doh.gov.ph/covid19tracker.
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today)
TROPICAL STORM "AURING" MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHIILE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
Hazards affecting land areas:
Heavy Rainfall:
• Today (21 February): Moderate to heavy rains over Caraga, Eastern Visayas, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, and Camiguin. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Zamboanga Peninsula, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Quezon, and the rest of Visayas and Northern Mindanao.
• Tomorrow (22 February): Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Visayas, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan.
• Under these conditions, scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Strong Winds:
• In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Tropical Storm “AURING” will bring gale-force winds in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 and strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where TCWS #1 is in effect, as well as over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Aurora, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol Region.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS (2.6 to 5.0 m) and the eastern seaboard of Luzon not under TCWS (2.6 to 4.5 m). Rough seas (2.5 to 4.0 m) will prevail over the southern seaboard of Luzon (including the eastern seaboard of Palawan), the remaining seaboards of Visayas, and the northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao that are not under any TCWS. Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Tropical Storm “AURING” is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward in the next 48 hours. On the forecast track and its probability cone, this storm may initially make landfall over the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island)-Leyte area between tonight or tomorrow early morning.
• There is an increasing likelihood that “AURING” will weaken into a tropical depression before it makes landfall due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. However, the possibility that the storm will maintain its strength until landfall is not yet ruled out. After landfall, “AURING” is forecast to weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a remnant low within 48 hours, possibly sooner.
Location of eye/center At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm "AURING" was estimated based on all available data at 335 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (8.4°N, 129.4°E).
Strength Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Movement Almost Stationary
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): In the vicinity of Jaro, Leyte (11.1°N, 124.8°E)
• 48 Hour (Tuesday morning):80 km North of Coron, Palawan (12.7°N, 120.1°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
-Visayas
The central and southern portions of Eastern Samar (Sulat, Taft, San Julian, Borongan City, Maydolong, Balangkayan, Balangiga, Lawaan, Llorente, Hernani, General Macarthur, Quinapondan, Giporlos, Salcedo, Mercedes, Guiuan)
-Mindanao
Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands
Impacts of wind
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
-Luzon
Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, Catanduanes, and the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagnay, Buhi, Iriga City, Nabua, Bato, Balatan)
-Visayas
Northern Samar, the rest of Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental (Kabankalan City, Himamaylan City, Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, Hinigaran, La Castellana, Pontevedra, San Enrique, La Carlota City, Pulupandan, Valladolid, Bago City, Murcia, Bacolod City, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso, Calatrava, San Carlos City, Salvador Benedicto), the eastern portion of Iloilo (San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Lemery, Ajuy, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles), and the eastern portion of Capiz (Roxas City, Panitan, Ma-Ayon, Cuartero, Dumarao, Panay, Pontevedra, President Roxas, Pilar)
-Mindanao
Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao City, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon
Impacts of wind
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today.
The tiny green dot indicates the location of Tropical Storm Auring at 4 a.m. today, February 20, 2021 (best viewed by clicking the full screen box at the lower right corner of the video)
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today)
TROPICAL STORM "AURING" MAINTAINS STRENGTH AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
Hazards affecting land areas:
Heavy Rainfall:
• Today (21 February): Moderate to heavy rains over Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Surigao del Sur. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, Quezon, and the rest of Visayas and Caraga.
• Tomorrow (22 February): Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Western Visayas, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan.
• Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Strong Winds:
• In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Tropical Storm “AURING” will bring gale-force winds in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 and strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where TCWS #1 is in effect, as well as over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Aurora, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol Region.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS (2.6 to 5.0 m) and the eastern seaboard of Luzon not under TCWS (2.6 to 4.5 m). Rough seas (2.5 to 4.0 m) will prevail over the southern seaboard of Luzon (including the eastern seaboard of Palawan), the remaining seaboards of Visayas, and the northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao that are not under any TCWS. Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Tropical Storm “AURING” is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward in the next 48 hours, with short-term erratic movement still likely prior to landfall. On the forecast track and its probability cone, this storm may initially make landfall over the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island)-Leyte area between tonight or tomorrow early morning.
• There is an increasing likelihood that “AURING” will weaken into a tropical depression before it makes landfall due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. However, the possibility that the storm will maintain its strength until landfall is not yet ruled out. Post-landfall, “AURING” is forecast to weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a remnant low within 48 hours, possibly sooner.
Location of eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm "AURING" was estimated based on all available data at 395 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (8.2°N, 129.9°E).
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Movement: Moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h.
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 60 km East Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar (10.8°N, 126.2°E)
• 48 Hour (Tuesday morning):30 km West Southwest of Romblon, Romblon (12.5°N, 122.0°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
Visayas
The southern portion of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Borongan City, Maydolong, Balangkayan, Balangiga, Lawaan, Llorente, Hernani, General Macarthur, Quinapondan, Giporlos, Salcedo, Mercedes, Guiuan)
Mindanao
Dinagat Islands and the northern portion of Surigao del Norte (Surigao City, Sison, Tagana-An, Placer, San Francisco) including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Luzon
Sorsogon, mainland Masbate, and Ticao Island
Visayas
Northern Samar, the rest of Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental (Kabankalan City, Himamaylan City, Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, Hinigaran, La Castellana, Pontevedra, San Enrique, La Carlota City, Pulupandan, Valladolid, Bago City, Murcia, Bacolod City, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso, Calatrava, San Carlos City, Salvador Benedicto), the eastern portion of Iloilo (Barotac Viejo, Lemery, San Rafael, Sara, Ajuy, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles), and the eastern portion of Capiz (Dumarao, Cuartero, Ma-Ayon, Pontevedra, Panay, President Roxas, Pilar)
Mindanao
The rest of Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao City, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today.
PAGASA Auring Updates As Of 6 a.m. on February 20, 2021
Auring slightly weakens over the Philippine Sea due to the surge of Amihan
Location of Eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, Auring was estimated at 475 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (06.3 °N, 130.1 °E )
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h
Auring may make landfall over the eastern coast of Caraga on Sunday morning or afternoon, then cross Visayas and MIMAROPA throughout the remainder of Sunday through Monday
Auring may weaken into a tropical depression before making landfall
This noon through tomorrow (21 February) morning: Heavy to intense rains over Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, and the rest of Caraga. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and the rest of Northern Mindanao.
Tomorrow morning through Monday (22 February) morning: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Surigao del Norte, and Dinagat Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, the southern portion of Quezon, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and the rest of Visayas and Caraga.
In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and Auring will bring strong to gale-force winds (50-90 kph) over the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is in effect, as well as over the rest of Visayas, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, and Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, and the northern portion of Palawan (including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan Islands). Strong breeze to near-gale conditions are also likely over the rest of Luzon.
Severe Weather Bulletin #9: Tropical Storm "#AuringPH"
Issued at 05:00 am, 20 February 2021 (Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11 AM today)
TROPICAL STORM "#AuringPH" SLIGHTLY WEAKENS OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
Heavy Rainfall: • Until this noon: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental, and Southern Leyte. • This noon through tomorrow (21 February) morning: Heavy to intense rains over Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, and the rest of Caraga. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and the rest of Northern Mindanao. • Tomorrow morning through Monday (22 February) morning: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Surigao del Norte, and Dinagat Islands. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, the southern portion of Quezon, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, and the rest of Visayas and Caraga.
Strong Winds: • In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Tropical Storm "#AuringPH" will bring strong to gale-force winds over the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is in effect, as well as over the rest of Visayas, Bicol Region, CALABARZON, and Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, and the northern portion of Palawan (including Calamian, Cuyo, and Kalayaan Islands). Strong breeze to near-gale conditions are also likely over the rest of Luzon.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to high seas (2.8 to 7.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS. Rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 5.0 m) will prevail over the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the remaining seaboards of Visayas. Rough seas (2.5 to 4.0 m) will prevail over the northern and western seaboards of Mindanao and the remaining seaboards of Luzon. Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters. • Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Track and intensity outlook:
• On the forecast track, Tropical Storm "#AuringPH" is forecast remain almost stationary in the next 6 to 12 hours before gradually accelerating towards the northwest. Its center is forecast to make landfall over the eastern coast of Caraga Region on Sunday morning or afternoon, then cross Visayas and MIMAROPA throughout the remainder of Sunday through Monday. • "#AuringPH" is more likely to remain as a tropical storm until it makes landfall over Caraga. However, there is an increasing likelihood that the storm will weaken into a tropical depression before making landfall. Nevertheless, this storm will likely weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and persistent vertical wind shear during this passage over the archipelago and may reach tropical depression category on Monday.
Location of Eye/center: At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm "#AuringPH" was estimated based on all available data at 475 km East Southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (06.3 °N, 130.1 °E ) Movement: Moving Almost Stationary Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h
Forecast Position: • 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 265 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur(7.9°N, 128.7°E) • 48 Hour(Monday morning):100 km East Southeast of Roxas City, Capiz( 11.2°N, 123.6°E) • 72 Hour(Tuesday morning): 85 km Northwest of Coron, Palawan( 12.5°N, 119.6°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
Mindanao: Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao City, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Bukidnon, and Lanao del Sur
Impacts of the wind • Very light or no damage to low risk structures • Light damage to medium to high risk structures • Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged • Twigs of small trees may be broken. • Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
