(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "AURING" CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES DINAGAT ISLANDS-HOMONHON ISLAND AREA.
Hazards affecting land areas:
Heavy Rainfall:
• Today: Moderate to heavy rains over Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Marinduque, Romblon, and Quezon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora and the rest of Visayas, MIMAROPA, and CALABARZON.
• Tomorrow: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Metro Manila, Camarines Norte, Bulacan, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Batanes.
• Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are still likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that received significant rainfall over the past couple of days. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Strong Winds:
• In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the Northeast Monsoon and “AURING” will bring strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is in effect, as well as over Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, the northern portions of Ilocos Norte and mainland Cagayan, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol Region.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough seas will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS #1, the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon not under any TCWS (2.5 to 3.5 m), the southern seaboard of Luzon and the remaining seaboards of Visayas (2.5 to 3.0 m). Sea travel is risky especially for those using small seacrafts.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of Luzon, and the northern and western seaboards of Mindanao not under any TCWS. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Track and intensity outlook:
• “AURING” is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track and its probability cone, the tropical depression may initially make landfall over the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island)-Leyte area in the next 6 to 12 hours.
• There is an increasing likelihood that “AURING” will further weaken before it makes landfall due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. Post-landfall, “AURING” is forecast to weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a remnant low within 24 hours, possibly sooner.
Location of eye/center:
At 4:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Depression "AURING" was estimated based on all available data at 195 km East of Maasin City, Southern Leyte (10.3°N, 126.6°E).
Strength:
Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.
Movement:
Moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h.
Forecast Positions:
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 55 km West Southwest of Romblon, Romblon (12.4°N, 121.8°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS#1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
LUZON
Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, Catanduanes, and the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagnay, Buhi, Iriga City, Nabua, Bato, Balatan)
VISAYAS
Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Siquijor, the northern and eastern portions of Negros Oriental (Dumaguete City, Sibulan, San Jose, Amlan, Pamplona, Tanjay City, Bais City, Manjuyod, Bindoy, Ayungon, Tayasan, Jimalalud, La Libertad, Guihulngan City, Canlaon City, Vallehermoso), the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental (Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, La Castellana, La Carlota City, Bago City, Pontevedra, Hinigaran, San Enrique, Valladolid, Pulupandan, Murcia, San Carlos City, Bacolod City, Salvador Benedicto, Calatrava, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso), the eastern portion of Iloilo (Dumangas, Barotac Nuevo, Anilao, San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Banate, Passi City, San Enrique, Dingle, Lemery, Ajuy, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles), and the eastern portion of Capiz (Cuartero, Dumarao, Ma-Ayon, Pontevedra, Panay, President Roxas, Panitan, Dao, Pilar)
MINDANAO
Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, the northern portion of Surigao del Sur (Lianga, Barobo, San Agustin, Marihatag, Cagwait, Bayabas, Tago, San Miguel, Tandag City, Cortes, Lanuza, Carmen, Madrid, Cantilan, Carrascal), Agusan del Norte, the northern portion of Agusan del Sur (Bayugan City, Prosperidad, Sibagat), the eastern portion of Misamis Oriental (Gingoog City, Magsaysay, Medina, Talisayan, Claveria, Balingasag, Lagonglong, Balingoan, Kinoguitan, Sugbongcogon, Binuangan, Salay), and Camiguin
IMPACTS OF THE WIND:
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 8 AM today.
Ngayong 4 PM, Pebrero 21, 2021, ang Department of Health ay nakapagtala ng 1,888 na karagdagang kaso ng COVID-19. Samantala ay mayroon namang naitalang 9,737 na gumaling at 20 na pumanaw.
Sa kabuuang bilang ng mga naitalang kaso sa bansa, 4.7% (26,238) ang aktibong kaso, 93.2% (522,843) na ang gumaling, at 2.15% (12,088) ang namatay.
More details from DOH Covid-19 Tracker: www.doh.gov.ph/covid19tracker.
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today)
TROPICAL STORM "AURING" MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHIILE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
Hazards affecting land areas:
Heavy Rainfall:
• Today (21 February): Moderate to heavy rains over Caraga, Eastern Visayas, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, and Camiguin. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Zamboanga Peninsula, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Quezon, and the rest of Visayas and Northern Mindanao.
• Tomorrow (22 February): Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Visayas, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan.
• Under these conditions, scattered flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are likely during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps. Adjacent or nearby areas may also experience flooding in the absence of such rainfall occurrence due to surface runoff or swelling of river channels. PAGASA Regional Services Divisions may issue local thunderstorm/rainfall advisories and heavy rainfall warnings while the Hydrometeorology Division and River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Centers may issue General Flood Advisories and Basin Flood Bulletins as appropriate.
Strong Winds:
• In the next 24 hours, the combined effects of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Tropical Storm “AURING” will bring gale-force winds in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #2 and strong breeze to near-gale conditions with occasionally higher gusts over the areas where TCWS #1 is in effect, as well as over CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Aurora, and the rest of Visayas and Bicol Region.
Hazards affecting coastal waters:
• In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS (2.6 to 5.0 m) and the eastern seaboard of Luzon not under TCWS (2.6 to 4.5 m). Rough seas (2.5 to 4.0 m) will prevail over the southern seaboard of Luzon (including the eastern seaboard of Palawan), the remaining seaboards of Visayas, and the northern, eastern, and western seaboards of Mindanao that are not under any TCWS. Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels over these waters.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Track and intensity outlook:
• Tropical Storm “AURING” is forecast to continue moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward in the next 48 hours. On the forecast track and its probability cone, this storm may initially make landfall over the Dinagat Islands-Eastern Samar (southern portion including Homonhon Island)-Leyte area between tonight or tomorrow early morning.
• There is an increasing likelihood that “AURING” will weaken into a tropical depression before it makes landfall due to persistent high vertical wind shear associated with the surge of the Northeast Monsoon. However, the possibility that the storm will maintain its strength until landfall is not yet ruled out. After landfall, “AURING” is forecast to weaken considerably due to significant terrain interaction and the increasing wind shear, leading to deterioration into a remnant low within 48 hours, possibly sooner.
Location of eye/center At 10:00 AM today, the center of Tropical Storm "AURING" was estimated based on all available data at 335 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (8.4°N, 129.4°E).
Strength Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Movement Almost Stationary
Forecast Positions
• 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): In the vicinity of Jaro, Leyte (11.1°N, 124.8°E)
• 48 Hour (Tuesday morning):80 km North of Coron, Palawan (12.7°N, 120.1°E)
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
TCWS #2
(61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)
-Visayas
The central and southern portions of Eastern Samar (Sulat, Taft, San Julian, Borongan City, Maydolong, Balangkayan, Balangiga, Lawaan, Llorente, Hernani, General Macarthur, Quinapondan, Giporlos, Salcedo, Mercedes, Guiuan)
-Mindanao
Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands
Impacts of wind
• Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures;
• Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures;
• No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
• Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
• A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
• Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
• Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
• In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
• Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
• Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
• Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
TCWS #1
(30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
-Luzon
Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, Catanduanes, and the eastern portion of Camarines Sur (Caramoan, Presentacion, Sagnay, Buhi, Iriga City, Nabua, Bato, Balatan)
-Visayas
Northern Samar, the rest of Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental (Kabankalan City, Himamaylan City, Binalbagan, Isabela, Moises Padilla, Hinigaran, La Castellana, Pontevedra, San Enrique, La Carlota City, Pulupandan, Valladolid, Bago City, Murcia, Bacolod City, Talisay City, Silay City, Enrique B. Magalona, Victorias City, Manapla, Cadiz City, Sagay City, Escalante City, Toboso, Calatrava, San Carlos City, Salvador Benedicto), the eastern portion of Iloilo (San Rafael, Barotac Viejo, Lemery, Ajuy, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles), and the eastern portion of Capiz (Roxas City, Panitan, Ma-Ayon, Cuartero, Dumarao, Panay, Pontevedra, President Roxas, Pilar)
-Mindanao
Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao de Oro, Davao del Norte, Davao City, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon
Impacts of wind
• Very light or no damage to low risk structures,
• Light damage to medium to high risk structures
• Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged
• Twigs of small trees may be broken.
• Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next Severe Weather Bulletin to be issued at 2 PM today.
